科伦药业：创新步入正轨，ADC龙头商业化曙光将至

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 39.48 CNY based on a 21x P/E ratio for 2024 [1]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a three-pronged growth strategy, with innovation on track and a robust operational structure formed by Kelun Pharmaceutical, Kelun Biotech, and Chuan Ning Biological [1][13]. - The ADC platform is leading domestically, with two ADC products expected to enter commercialization soon, including SKB264 and A166, which have significant market potential [1][35]. - The company has a strong pipeline in non-ADC products, with several expected approvals in the oncology and non-oncology fields [1][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 21.45 billion CNY (+12.7%) and a net profit of 2.46 billion CNY (+44.0%), indicating strong performance and improved profitability [1][18]. - The company forecasts earnings per share of 1.88 CNY, 2.11 CNY, and 2.36 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][3]. Innovation and R&D - The company has invested over 12.2 billion CNY in R&D from 2013 to 2023, with a CAGR of 17.2%, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [27][29]. - Kelun Biotech is recognized as a leader in the ADC field, with a well-established integrated R&D platform and significant partnerships, particularly with Merck [1][34]. Product Pipeline - The ADC pipeline includes SKB264, the first domestic TROP2 ADC, and A166, the first HER2 ADC for breast cancer, both expected to launch soon [1][35]. - The company also has a rich reserve of non-ADC products, with approvals anticipated in various therapeutic areas, including rheumatoid arthritis and asthma [1][6]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the domestic infusion market, with innovative products like the "Keli Bag" enhancing cash flow [1][24]. - The antibiotic intermediate segment is also a key growth area, benefiting from market recovery and increased efficiency [1][6].