GANYUAN FOODS CO.(002991) 甬兴证券·2024-05-24 03:00Investment Rating - The stock is rated as "Buy" with an expected outperformance of more than 20% compared to the benchmark index over the next 6 months [3][21] Core Views - The company's product and channel development is strong, with cost-side scale effects expected to continue [6] - Revenue for 2023 reached 1.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 329 million yuan, up 107.8% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2024, revenue was 590 million yuan, up 49.8% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 90 million yuan, up 65.3% year-on-year [6] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 2.34/2.89/3.52 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.4%/23.9%/21.8% [6] - EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 4.4/5.4/6.4 yuan, with PE ratios of 17/14/12x [6] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue was 1.848 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27.4% [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was 329 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 107.8% [7] - EPS for 2023 was 3.58 yuan, with a PE ratio of 19.96x [7] - ROE for 2023 was 19.5%, expected to increase to 26.4% by 2026 [7] - Gross margin for 2023 was 36.2%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [12] Business Development - In 2023, the company's core categories such as mixed nuts and beans, green peas, and sunflower seeds continued to expand, with mixed nuts and beans revenue increasing by 32.2% year-on-year [19] - Revenue from distribution channels in 2023 was 1.57 billion yuan, up 27.6% year-on-year, while e-commerce revenue was 220 million yuan, up 29.4% year-on-year [19] - The company is deepening its cooperation with traditional supermarket systems and expanding its presence in emerging channels such as snack stores and e-commerce platforms [19] - The company's gross margin improved significantly in 2023 due to lower raw material costs and the release of scale effects from the Anyang factory [19] Future Outlook - The company plans to strengthen and upgrade its core products while optimizing new product categories [19] - It aims to increase coverage in traditional channels such as KA, BC, and CVS, while expanding its market share in emerging channels like snack stores, e-commerce platforms, and social commerce [19] - The company's full-channel strategy is expected to drive continued growth in 2024 [19]