天目湖23年报及24年一季报点评：客流复苏促进业绩高增，关注周边游景气度与新项目落地

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianmu Lake (603136 SH) with a target price of 18 53 yuan [6] Core Views - The company s performance is driven by the recovery of tourist traffic but faces pressure from long-distance travel diversion [6] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the recovery of nearby tourism and the operational effectiveness of new projects such as the Pingqiao Rafting project [6] - The company s Q1 2024 performance showed a slight decline due to high base effects and long-distance travel diversion [6] - The company achieved revenue of 6 3 billion yuan in 2023 a 70 9% YoY increase with core scenic spots and hotel businesses contributing significantly [6] - The company s gross margin in 2023 was 54 3% lower than 2019 levels due to new hotel openings and product mix adjustments [6] - The company s cost control remains strong with sales management and financial expense ratios improving compared to 2019 [6] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2023 was 630 million yuan with a projected increase to 687 million yuan in 2024 and 809 million yuan in 2025 [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 was 147 million yuan with a projected increase to 169 million yuan in 2024 and 200 million yuan in 2025 [6] - The company s EPS is expected to grow from 0 79 yuan in 2023 to 1 16 yuan in 2026 [6] - The company s ROE is projected to increase from 10 1% in 2023 to 11 7% in 2025 [6] Key Projects and Future Outlook - The Pingqiao Rafting project is expected to start operations in mid-2024 with its performance being a key focus [6] - The completion of the Shanghai-Suzhou-Huzhou high-speed railway by the end of 2024 is expected to reduce travel time for key customer groups [6] - The Animal Kingdom project is anticipated to enrich Tianmu Lake s tourism resources and increase visitor numbers [6] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The company s P E ratio is projected to decrease from 23 in 2023 to 16 in 2026 [6] - The company s P B ratio is expected to decline from 3 in 2023 to 2 in 2026 [6] - The company s EV EBITDA ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10 in 2023 to 8 in 2026 [6]