天目湖：23年报及24年一季报点评：客流复苏促进业绩高增，关注周边游景气度与新项目落地

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 18.53 yuan [10]. Core Viewpoints - The company's performance has significantly improved due to the recovery of visitor traffic and the impact of long-distance tourism. However, there is a need to monitor the recovery of surrounding tourism and the operational effects of new projects [10]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, maintaining a "Buy" rating. The pressure on visitor traffic is attributed to the diversion caused by long-distance tourism [10]. - The company achieved a revenue of 630 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 70.9%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 147 million yuan, a substantial increase of 623.9% [10][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2022A: 369 million yuan (-12.0% YoY) - 2023A: 630 million yuan (70.9% YoY) - 2024E: 687 million yuan (9.0% YoY) - 2025E: 809 million yuan (17.9% YoY) - 2026E: 856 million yuan (5.8% YoY) [10]. - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: 20 million yuan (-60.6% YoY) - 2023A: 147 million yuan (623.9% YoY) - 2024E: 169 million yuan (15.1% YoY) - 2025E: 200 million yuan (18.3% YoY) - 2026E: 216 million yuan (8.1% YoY) [10]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: 0.79 yuan - 2024: 0.91 yuan - 2025: 1.07 yuan - 2026: 1.16 yuan [10]. - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023: 10% - 2024: 10.8% - 2025: 11.7% - 2026: 11.4% [10]. Key Investment Points - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of surrounding tourism and the operational effects of new projects, particularly the Pingqiao rafting project scheduled to launch mid-year [10]. - The company’s performance in Q1 2023 showed a slight decline, necessitating close attention to the recovery pace of surrounding tourism and the operational effects of new projects [10]. - The company’s revenue from core scenic areas and hotel operations increased by 2.8% and 118.2% respectively, indicating a strong recovery in demand [10].