滔搏：这可能是一个岩石道路的转机

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Topsports, with a target price (TP) adjusted down to HKD 6.78 from the previous HKD 9.23, reflecting a 23.5% downside from the current price of HKD 5.49 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report expresses cautious optimism regarding Topsports' performance in the upcoming quarters, despite a challenging high base and macroeconomic conditions. It anticipates potential catalysts for recovery in FY25E, even if growth is below expectations [1][2]. - Retail sales growth for Topsports was slow in 4Q24, with expectations of continued pressure in 1Q25E due to high bases from new product launches. However, healthier inventory levels and reduced retail discount pressures are noted [1][2]. - The report highlights the potential for online sales growth acceleration and improved offline sales as key factors for recovery, alongside investments in brand marketing for the Paris Olympics [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24A is reported at RMB 28.933 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. For FY25E, revenue is projected to reach RMB 31.072 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 7.4% [2][11]. - Net profit for FY24A is reported at RMB 2.213 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. The net profit for FY25E is expected to be RMB 2.532 billion, indicating a growth of 14.4% [2][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 42.0% for FY25E, while the net profit margin is projected to improve slightly to 8.1% [2][11]. Inventory and Sales Performance - Inventory days have decreased significantly by 13 days to 136 days, indicating improved inventory management [6]. - Direct retail sales grew by 9% in FY24, while wholesale sales declined by 3%. E-commerce sales are expected to grow by 21%, significantly outpacing offline sales growth [6][11]. Market Position and Valuation - The current trading price of Topsports is at a P/E ratio of 12 times, which is below its four-year average of 13 times, suggesting potential undervaluation [1][2]. - The report notes a dividend yield of 7% for FY25E, providing a protective cushion for investors [1][2].