Xingtong Shipping(SH:603209) Huachuang Securities·2024-05-24 04:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.18 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price [29][66][82]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the liquid chemical shipping industry in China, focusing on the transportation of liquid chemicals, refined oil, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) [29][40]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1.24 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 58%, with a net profit of 250 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 22% [29][40]. - The fleet capacity is continuously expanding, with a market share in domestic liquid chemical shipping increasing from 4.61% at the end of 2018 to 14.2% by 2023 [29][40]. - As of April 2024, the company operates 35 vessels with a total capacity of 410,000 DWT, comprising 28 domestic vessels (75% capacity) and 7 international vessels (25% capacity) [29][40][79]. Summary by Sections Fleet Characteristics - The average age of the company's fleet is 8.55 years, with domestic vessels averaging 9.62 years and international vessels 4.28 years [29][40]. - The fleet includes 15 chemical tankers, 14 oil tankers, 3 refined oil tankers, and 3 LPG tankers, with respective capacity shares of 53%, 30%, 14%, and 3% [29][40][79]. Fleet Expansion Plans - The company plans to add at least 7 new vessels between 2024 and 2025, with 3 chemical tankers expected to be operational in the second half of 2024 [1][2]. - The new vessels will enhance the company's capacity by 63% compared to mid-2023 levels [1]. Valuation and Financial Metrics - The estimated fleet replacement value is approximately 5.63 billion CNY, with domestic vessels valued at 4.29 billion CNY and international vessels at 1.34 billion CNY [30][82]. - The current market capitalization is 4.4 billion CNY, indicating a discount of 21% compared to the calculated replacement value [30][82]. Profitability Forecast - The report maintains net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 310 million CNY, 380 million CNY, and 450 million CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 [29][65].