ELLASSAY(SH:603808) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-05-24 06:01Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 10.20 CNY, maintaining the same rating as before [11]. Core Views - The company's domestic business performance is stable, while overseas operations are under pressure, impacting overall performance. The company is actively enhancing channel management, which is expected to gradually improve performance [9][12]. - The revenue for 2023 is projected to increase by 21.7% year-on-year, with net profit expected to rise by 416.6% [9][12]. - The report highlights that the company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2025 due to lower-than-expected overseas business profitability, with new estimates of 0.61/0.84 CNY for 2024 [9][12]. Financial Forecast Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 2,915 million CNY in 2023 to 4,120 million CNY by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [2]. - The EBIT is expected to increase significantly from 299 million CNY in 2023 to 620 million CNY in 2026, indicating strong operational growth [2]. - Net profit is projected to rise from 106 million CNY in 2023 to 380 million CNY in 2026, with a net profit margin improving from 3.6% to 9.2% over the same period [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a PE ratio decreasing from 27.18 in 2023 to 7.56 by 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [2]. - The PB ratio is expected to decline from 1.17 in 2023 to 0.88 in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [2]. - The dividend yield is projected to increase from 3.1% in 2023 to 8.4% in 2026, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [2]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of 6.53 to 13.74 CNY, with a current market capitalization of 2,872 million CNY [3][11]. - The report notes a significant increase in net asset return (ROE) from 3.6% in 2023 to 11.7% by 2026, indicating improved profitability and efficiency [2].