通威股份：价格加速见底，成本品质竞争凸显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438) [1] Core Views - The company, originally focused on agriculture, has deeply engaged in the photovoltaic industry since 2008, with a diversified business model integrating aquaculture and solar energy [2][10] - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 139.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.33% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.574 billion yuan, down 47.25% year-on-year [2][12] - The report highlights that the silicon material market is stabilizing, with a significant increase in sales volume and a focus on cost and quality competition [2][20] - The battery segment is under pressure, with a shift towards N-type battery production, while the company aims to enhance its production capacity significantly [2][21][22] - Component shipments have surged, with a strategic push for overseas market expansion, targeting a 15-20% share of international sales [2][23] - The report revises profit forecasts downward for 2024-2025 but introduces a new forecast for 2026, projecting net profits of 3.1 billion, 4.5 billion, and 8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][24] Summary by Sections 1. Company Background - Founded in 1995, Tongwei initially focused on feed processing before entering the photovoltaic sector in 2008 [10] - The company operates in both agriculture (aquaculture and livestock feed) and renewable energy (high-purity silicon, solar cells, and modules) [11] 2. Silicon Material Market - In 2023, the company sold approximately 387,000 tons of silicon material, a 51% increase year-on-year, with production capacity expected to reach 850,000 tons by the end of 2024 [20] 3. Battery Segment - The company sold around 81 GW of batteries in 2023, a 68% increase, with plans to enhance production efficiency and capacity for N-type batteries [21][22] 4. Component Shipments - In 2023, component sales reached approximately 31 GW, a 292% increase, with a goal of exporting 15-20% of total shipments in 2024 [23] 5. Profit Forecasts - The report adjusts profit forecasts due to increased competition and price pressures, projecting significant declines in net profit for 2024 and 2025, followed by a recovery in 2026 [24]