百利天恒：加速推进B01D1全球化

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 179.62 CNY and a reasonable value of 209.30 CNY per share [1][19]. Core Views - The company has ample cash on hand and is continuously increasing its R&D investment. In 2023, the annual operating revenue was 5.62 billion CNY, a decrease of 20.11% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -780 million CNY [1][4]. - The significant decline in profit is attributed to changes in market demand, the impact of centralized procurement, and rising prices of raw materials. The company is actively advancing its innovative drug development pipeline, with a substantial increase in R&D expenses [1][4]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 54.62 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 4325%, with a net profit of 50.05 billion CNY, primarily due to an 8 billion USD upfront payment received from BMS [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2022, the company reported an operating revenue of 703 million CNY, which decreased to 562 million CNY in 2023. The forecast for 2024 is 6.36 billion CNY, with a projected growth rate of 1032.0% [1][16]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -282 million CNY in 2022 and is expected to improve to 4.03 billion CNY by 2024 [1][16]. - The company’s EPS is projected to recover from -0.78 CNY in 2022 to 10.04 CNY in 2024 [1][16]. R&D Pipeline - The company has five ADCs in clinical development, including BL-B01D1, which is in Phase III trials for multiple indications, and BL-M07D1, which is in Phase III for HER2-positive breast cancer [4][5]. - The company is also advancing dual-target and multi-target therapies, with several candidates in various stages of clinical trials [4][5]. Market Potential - The revenue forecast for the new indications of B01D1 includes a projected sales figure of 478 million CNY in 2028, increasing to 2.24 billion CNY by 2030 [5][7]. - For BL-M07D1, the sales forecast for HER2-positive gastric cancer is estimated to reach 83 million CNY in 2025, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [10][12]. Valuation - The DCF valuation method indicates a reasonable value of 209.30 CNY per share, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][4].