TKGF(SH:601233) Soochow Securities·2024-05-26 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233) [1][4] Core Views - The company announced adjustments to its integrated refining project in Indonesia, which includes changes in equity structure, investment amount, and project scale [3] - The company's ownership stake in the project has increased from 45.9% to 80%, while the stakes of other partners have decreased [3] - The total refining capacity has been reduced from 16 million tons to 10 million tons, with an increased focus on olefins [3] - The market absorption of products in Indonesia and ASEAN has increased, with a shift in product distribution towards local markets [3] - The total investment for the project has been reduced from $8.62 billion to $5.95 billion, with the company's capital contribution rising to $1.43 billion [3] - The adjustments are expected to enhance the project's competitiveness and control over the Indonesian market [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 3.2 billion, 4.4 billion, and 5.1 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11.7, 8.5, and 7.3 times [4] - The total revenue is projected to grow from 82.64 billion yuan in 2023 to 100.996 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.5% [2][4] - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit growth rates, projecting a 539.1% increase in 2023 and a 300.4% increase in 2024 [2][4] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is reported at 15.53 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 37.44 billion yuan [6] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.04 and a total circulating A-share market value of about 35.29 billion yuan [6] Basic Data - The company has a net asset value per share of 14.96 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 67.56% [7] - The total number of shares outstanding is approximately 2.41 billion [7]