Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 68.13 CNY, indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [1][9]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a reported income of 48 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30%. The top five customers accounted for 82% of total sales, with Deckers and VF being significant clients [1]. - Deckers has shown robust growth, with FY24Q4 revenue of 9.6 billion USD (approximately 68.1 billion CNY), up 21% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.3 billion USD (approximately 9.2 billion CNY), up 39% [1]. - VF is experiencing revenue pressure but is making progress in inventory improvement and transformation, with FY24Q4 revenue of 24 billion USD (approximately 170.3 billion CNY), down 13% year-on-year [1]. Financial Summary - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 38.9 billion CNY, 44.3 billion CNY, and 49.5 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.3 CNY, 3.8 CNY, and 4.2 CNY [2]. - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 24 billion CNY, 27.6 billion CNY, and 31 billion CNY, with growth rates of 19.36%, 15.10%, and 12.30% respectively [3][4]. - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a debt ratio of approximately 22.49% for 2024E, indicating a solid financial position [5]. Operational Insights - The company is expanding its production capacity with new factories in Indonesia and Vietnam, which are expected to contribute to order growth and revenue stability [2][1]. - The multi-client model allows the company to adapt to market dynamics and meet diverse customer needs, enhancing its competitive edge [1]. Market Position - The company has been able to maintain stable revenue growth even during challenging periods, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and inventory destocking in 2023, indicating resilience in its market position [1].
华利集团：Deckers增长强劲、VF逐步复苏推动订单增长