SA(SH:601021) Changjiang Securities·2024-05-28 04:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit in Q1 2024, with a revenue of 5.17 billion yuan, up 33.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.81 billion yuan, up 128% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company has committed to a dividend plan for 2023 and a dividend commitment for 2024-2026, indicating a strong focus on shareholder returns [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 17.9 billion yuan, a 114.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.26 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [5]. - For Q1 2024, the company’s ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) increased by 34% compared to Q1 2019, and RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) grew by 32.5% compared to Q1 2019, with a passenger load factor of 91.2% [5][6]. Cost Management - The company demonstrated effective cost control, with non-fuel costs per seat kilometer at 0.1953 yuan, down 17.6% from Q4 2023 and 4.3% from Q1 2019 [6]. - The tax shield effect was significant, with an effective tax rate of 8.8%, contributing to profit growth [6]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term: The company is expected to benefit significantly from the trend of private travel demand [6]. - Mid-term: The company’s cost efficiency and operational capabilities are projected to lead to a recovery in profitability [6]. - Long-term: The company has substantial growth potential in lower-tier markets, with a commitment to cash dividends of at least 30% of distributable profits from 2024 to 2026 [6]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.19 billion yuan, 3.60 billion yuan, and 4.15 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.5, 15.5, and 13.5 times [6].