中国外运：Q1业绩短期承压，经营货量稳健增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue was 24.29 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 800 million yuan, a decrease of 16.1% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 730 million yuan, down 14.8% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company's agency business volume showed steady growth, with air and sea freight prices performing strongly. The volume of sea freight agency, air freight agency, railway agency, ship agency, and warehouse operations increased by 21.2%, 23.2%, 36.8%, 2.5%, and 11.4% year-on-year, respectively [5][6]. - Despite a lack of effective domestic demand, the company managed to achieve growth in professional logistics volume, with contract logistics, project logistics, chemical logistics, and cold chain logistics volumes increasing by 26.4%, 9.6%, 11.1%, and 22.4% year-on-year, respectively [5][6]. - Government subsidies grew at a slower pace, with other income increasing by 4.6% to 480 million yuan, which is below the growth rate of cargo volume. The company's investment income remained stable at 480 million yuan year-on-year [5][6]. - The outlook for 2024 is positive, with export orders exceeding expectations. The resonance of the U.S. real estate cycle and inventory cycle is expected to drive up sea freight agency volume. Additionally, the sustained high demand for cross-border e-commerce is anticipated to enhance profitability in air freight [5][6]. Financial Summary - For Q1 2024, the company's gross profit decreased by 18.3% to 1.25 billion yuan, reflecting pressure on margins due to insufficient domestic demand and pricing pressures [5][6]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.53 billion yuan, 4.72 billion yuan, and 5.04 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9.6, 9.2, and 8.6 [6][11].