Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) with a target price of 186 USD for 2024 [14][16] Core Views - Pinduoduo's Q1 revenue and profit significantly exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in both its main platform and Temu [1][30] - Revenue for Q1 reached 86 8 billion RMB, up 131% YoY, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of 76 9 billion RMB [30] - Online marketing service revenue grew 56% YoY to 42 5 billion RMB, while commission income surged 327% YoY to 44 4 billion RMB, surpassing expectations [30] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 30 6 billion RMB, up 202% YoY, far exceeding the expected 15 5 billion RMB [30] - The company's gross margin was 62 3%, down 8 1 percentage points YoY but up 1 8 percentage points QoQ [30] - Sales and marketing expense ratio, general and administrative expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio improved significantly, dropping by 16 2, 0 1, and 3 3 percentage points YoY respectively [30] Business Performance - Pinduoduo's main platform continues to benefit from high monetization rates, driven by strong bargaining power with white-label merchants and a focus on low-cost advantages [30] - Temu's innovative fully-hosted and semi-hosted models have significantly reduced costs for domestic merchants going global, boosting GMV and average order value [30] - Temu has expanded to over 50 countries and regions across Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and Oceania [30] - The company's online marketing and commission income both exceeded expectations, with commission income surpassing online marketing for the first time, largely driven by Temu's rapid growth [30][34] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E have been revised upward to 4,020, 5,130, and 6,283 billion RMB respectively, representing YoY growth of 62%, 28%, and 22% [25][30] - Adjusted net profit for the same periods is projected to be 962, 1,307, and 1,653 billion RMB, with YoY growth of 42%, 36%, and 26% [25][30] - The company's operating profit surged 275% YoY, with the operating margin improving to 29 9% [8] - Adjusted net profit margin increased to 35 3%, up 202% YoY [8] Valuation - The report uses a SOTP valuation method, comparing Pinduoduo to leading global online retail and online marketing companies [14] - The target price of 186 USD for 2024 is based on this valuation approach [14]
拼多多2024年Q1业绩点评：业绩超预期，主站和Temu业务高质量增长