苹果：iPhone15降价迎接竞争，长期增长看硬件创新

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of $220.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.24% from the current stock price of $190.90 [2][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the iPhone 15 sales have been disappointing, with a revenue decline of 10.5% year-over-year, attributed to both a high base effect from the previous year and increased competition in the smartphone market [13][52]. - The integration of AI technology is seen as a crucial growth driver for the company, especially with upcoming product announcements expected at the 2024 WWDC [13][44]. - The company is experiencing a structural shift in its revenue, with service revenue growing by 14.2% year-over-year, while product revenue has declined [15][48]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending September 30, 2023, the company reported a net profit of $96.995 billion, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.2, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year [11][12]. - The total revenue for the quarter was $908 billion, down 4.3% year-over-year, but above Bloomberg consensus estimates [15][18]. - The gross margin for the quarter was reported at 46.6%, an increase of 230 basis points year-over-year, driven by growth in service revenue [15][18]. Shareholder Returns - The company has authorized an additional $110 billion stock buyback plan and increased its quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share [15][19]. - Over $270 billion has been returned to shareholders, including $235 billion in stock buybacks and $37 billion in dividends [15][19]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The report anticipates a low single-digit year-over-year revenue growth for the next quarter, with expectations for iPad revenue to see double-digit growth [33][19]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 4.3% and an EPS CAGR of 9.1% over the next three years, supported by a growing base of paid subscription users and a recovering consumer electronics market [19][64].