TKGF(SH:601233) Great Wall Securities·2024-05-28 11:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [16]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 showed significant improvement, with a revenue increase of 33.3% year-on-year to 82.64 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 539.1% to 797 million yuan [2][7]. - The first quarter of 2024 also demonstrated strong growth, with a revenue of 21.11 billion yuan, up 32.66% year-on-year, and a net profit of 580 million yuan, up 218.01% year-on-year [2]. - The long filament industry is expected to see an upward trend in demand, benefiting leading companies like the one in the report [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: 2023 revenue was 82.64 billion yuan, with projections of 94.17 billion yuan for 2024, 100.56 billion yuan for 2025, and 107.11 billion yuan for 2026 [7][10]. - Net Profit: The company reported a net profit of 797 million yuan in 2023, with forecasts of 3.12 billion yuan for 2024, 4.20 billion yuan for 2025, and 5.23 billion yuan for 2026 [7][10]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS for 2023 was 0.33 yuan, projected to rise to 1.29 yuan in 2024, 1.74 yuan in 2025, and 2.17 yuan in 2026 [7][10]. - Return on Equity (ROE): ROE improved from 0.4% in 2022 to 2.3% in 2023, with expectations of reaching 8.1% in 2024 [7][12]. Industry Overview - The report highlights a recovery in the polyester filament industry, with increasing market demand and a trend towards industry consolidation, which favors leading companies [6][7]. - The company has strengthened its integrated supply chain, with PTA production capacity exceeding 10 million tons and filament production capacity reaching 13.5 million tons, enhancing its competitive position [6][7].