PDH(SH:600048) Haitong Securities·2024-05-29 14:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 49.748 billion yuan in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.51%. However, net profit was 3.983 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.44%, while attributable net profit decreased by 18.28% to 2.224 billion yuan, primarily due to the decline in project turnover gross margin and equity ratio [5][8]. - The company maintained its leading position in the industry despite a significant year-on-year decline in signed contracts and area due to a high base effect from 2023. The total signed amount was 62.984 billion yuan, down 44.81% year-on-year, while the signed area was 3.6687 million square meters, down 41.84% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company continues to focus on core cities, expanding its real estate projects in Q1 2024 with four new projects and a total acquisition cost of 5 billion yuan, all located in 38 core cities [5][6]. Financial Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 49.748 billion yuan, up 24.41% from Q1 2023, while total costs increased by 28.97% to 44.873 billion yuan [8]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2024 was 21.87%, down from 25.10% in Q1 2023, indicating a decline in profitability [9]. - The company's total assets as of Q1 2024 were 1,424.356 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.63% from the end of 2023, while net assets increased by 7.13% to 343.546 billion yuan [9][11]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have an EPS of 1.07 yuan for 2024, with a valuation range of 1280-1536 billion yuan based on a PE ratio of 10-12 times [6][10]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 394.240 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit forecast of 12.799 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [7][11].