GANSU EC(SZ:000552) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-05-30 09:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [21] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a turning point in performance due to the successful progress of its coal, chemical, and power projects, with market coal prices rebounding since Q2 [21][23] - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised to 2.36 billion, 2.80 billion, and 3.14 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 35.5%, 18.9%, and 12.3% [21][23] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.44, 0.52, and 0.59 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, corresponding to current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.6, 7.2, and 6.4 times [21][23] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 12,261 million yuan, with a forecasted decline to 11,259 million yuan in 2023, followed by a recovery to 12,822 million yuan in 2024 [15] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 3,169 million yuan in 2022 to 1,738 million yuan in 2023, before increasing to 2,355 million yuan in 2024 [15] - The gross margin is projected to be 37.9% in 2024, up from 35.9% in 2023 [15] Business Development - The company has 8 pairs of mines with a current approved capacity of 16.24 million tons and an additional 6.9 million tons under construction [21][23] - The coal chemical project is expected to contribute an average annual after-tax profit of 4.1 billion yuan and 3.2 billion yuan from its first and second phases respectively [21][23] - The power generation capacity is set to increase significantly with the completion of a new project, expected to boost installed capacity from 809,000 kW to 1,509,000 kW by 2025 [21][23]