赛富时：cRPO growth moderating on macro headwind

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Salesforce with a target price of US$335.00, down from the previous target of US$350.00, reflecting a 53.7% upside from the current price of US$218.01 [2][3][9]. Core Insights - Salesforce's total revenue for 1QFY25 grew by 11% YoY to US$9.13 billion, aligning with consensus estimates, while non-GAAP operating income increased by 29% YoY to US$2.93 billion [2]. - The company's cRPO growth rate has moderated to 10% YoY in 1QFY25, down from 12% in 4QFY24, attributed to a more cautious buying behavior from clients and organizational changes [2]. - Management has adjusted FY25 subscription and support revenue growth guidance to slightly below 10%, while maintaining non-GAAP operating margin guidance at 32.5% [2][7]. Revenue and Profitability - Revenue forecasts for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E have been revised down by 1-2% due to persistent headwinds affecting bookings growth [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected at US$9.32 billion, reflecting a 15.3% YoY growth [3][12]. - Non-GAAP operating margin improved to 32.1% in 1QFY25, driven by efficiency gains in sales and marketing [2][12]. Segment Performance - Sales/Service Cloud revenue grew by 10% and 11% YoY to US$2.0 billion and US$2.2 billion, respectively, while Integration and Analytics Cloud revenue surged by 24% YoY to US$1.4 billion [2]. - Data cloud solutions are gaining traction, with strong demand supported by generative AI, contributing to 25% of Salesforce's million-dollar-plus deals in 1QFY25 [2][9]. Market Position and Valuation - Salesforce's valuation is based on a target EV/EBITDA of 20x FY25E, which is at a discount to the sector average of 25x, reflecting the company's transition into a more mature earnings growth phase [9][10]. - The company has established the Zero Copy Partner Network with major tech firms, enhancing its data cloud capabilities and positioning it favorably for future growth [2][9].