Anhui Sentai WPC (301429) 长城证券·2024-05-31 10:31Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the industry index over the next six months [6][34] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve recovery growth in 2024, driven by increased sales orders and improved profitability, with Q1 2024 revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 7.42% and 31.25% respectively [10] - The company is actively expanding its presence in the US market, with plans to acquire Decking Distribution Sub, LLC, and establish production bases in Vietnam and Thailand, which are expected to drive future growth [9] - The company's overseas business accounted for 91% of its revenue in 2023, with Europe being the primary market, contributing approximately 64% of overseas revenue in 2021 [10] - The company plans to use 30-40 million yuan of its IPO overfunding to repurchase shares for employee stock ownership or equity incentive plans, demonstrating confidence in its future development [10][29] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 were 616 million yuan and 48 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 25% and 43.65% [10] - For 2024-2026, the company's revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.3%, reaching 1.7 billion yuan by 2026 [6] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by 104.5%, 38%, and 23% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reaching 166 million yuan by 2026 [6] - The company's ROE is forecasted to improve from 3.2% in 2023 to 9.5% by 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability [6] Industry and Competitive Advantages - The global wood-plastic composite market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.4% from 2019 to 2027, driven by increasing demand for sustainable materials [36] - The company holds a competitive edge in the market due to its export-oriented business model, with products sold in developed countries such as the US and Europe, where it has secured a share of the mid-to-high-end market [36] - The company possesses independent core technologies and has developed a comprehensive product portfolio of high-performance wood-plastic composites, which meet international standards and have contributed to the advancement of the domestic wood-plastic industry [36] Expansion and Capacity - The company is expanding its production capacity through projects such as the 20,000-ton lightweight co-extruded wood-plastic composite expansion project and the 6 million square meter new stone-wood-plastic composite digital printing production line upgrade project [9] - The establishment of subsidiaries in Vietnam and Thailand is expected to enhance the company's overseas production and service capabilities, better meeting the order demands of international customers [9]