贵州茅台：坚守核心竞争力，行稳致远

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [4][8]. Core Views - The new chairman, Zhang Deqin, emphasizes the importance of stability, health, and sustainable development for Moutai, focusing on five core competitive strengths: quality, brand, craftsmanship, culture, and environment [2][13]. - The company aims to maintain a revenue growth target of 15% for 2024, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 being 88.92 billion, 105.95 billion, and 123.12 billion yuan respectively [21]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections are as follows: - 2023: 150.56 billion yuan - 2024: 175.61 billion yuan - 2025: 206.09 billion yuan - 2026: 235.57 billion yuan - Net profit projections are: - 2023: 74.73 billion yuan - 2024: 88.92 billion yuan - 2025: 105.95 billion yuan - 2026: 123.12 billion yuan - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 59.49 yuan in 2023 to 98.01 yuan in 2026, with a decreasing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 27.7 in 2023 to 16.8 in 2026 [3][4][21]. Market Context - The report highlights the challenges faced by the high-end liquor market, including price declines and reduced sales volume, but positions Moutai as a stabilizing force in the industry [11][21]. - The company is seen as a leader in the industry, advocating for long-term strategies to navigate current market adjustments and enhance confidence in the sector [2][21].