古井贡酒：多价位稳扎稳打，全国化渐入佳境

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has a solid product layout that balances both defensive and offensive strategies, focusing on the mid-to-high-end market segment since 2018 with its flagship product, Gu 20, which has strengthened its brand presence [2] - The company is making significant progress in national expansion, with a clear strategic path to achieve a revenue target of 30 billion [2] - Inventory management is effective, and cost optimization continues to yield positive results, enhancing operational efficiency [2] - The company forecasts a strong growth trajectory for net profit, projecting 60 billion, 74 billion, and 90 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +30%, +24%, and +21% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to reach 20,254 million in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 21.18% - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4,589 million in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.01% - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted at 8.68, with a P/E ratio of 28.88 [1][2] Product Strategy - The company is focusing on maintaining price stability for Gu 20 while expanding the volume of Gu 8 and Gu 16 to support short-term revenue and long-term structural improvements [2] - The product lineup includes Gu 5 aimed at the mass market, with plans to launch a new variant targeting the 150 yuan price point [2] Market Expansion - The company has established a multi-tiered market strategy, with significant progress in both domestic and national markets, aiming for a well-structured expansion [2] - The first tier markets have reached a scale of 1 to 2 billion, with plans to grow to 20 billion+ in the next 3 to 5 years [2] Cost Management - The company has refined its inventory control and marketing expenditure, focusing on high-efficiency resource allocation [2] - Marketing expenses are being directed towards consumer cultivation activities rather than promotional discounts, enhancing overall marketing effectiveness [2]