GUJING(000596) 广发证券·2024-06-03 03:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu, with a target price of 306.41 CNY per share based on a 27x PE valuation for 2024 [4]. Core Views - Gujing Gongjiu has maintained its leading position in the Anhui province market due to its strong channel capabilities and timely reforms in response to macroeconomic changes [2]. - The company has outperformed the industry over the past three years, with a stock price increase of 5.2% compared to a 27.6% decline in the SW Baijiu II index [19]. - Gujing Gongjiu is well-positioned for national expansion, leveraging its superior channel management compared to Shanxi Fenjiu [2]. - The company's sales expense ratio is expected to decline as it benefits from economies of scale, with a significant portion of revenue coming from outside its home province [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 20,254 million CNY in 2023 to 33,957 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 21.0% [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 4,589 million CNY in 2023 to 8,859 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 30.7% [3]. - The EPS is forecasted to rise from 8.68 CNY in 2023 to 16.76 CNY in 2026 [3]. Market Dynamics - The Anhui white liquor market has seen rapid expansion, with the market size growing from approximately 250 billion CNY in 2017 to over 400 billion CNY in 2023, driven by a significant increase in the mid-to-high-end segment [26][27]. - Gujing Gongjiu has benefited from the third round of consumption upgrades in Anhui, with its products positioned in the mid-to-high-end price range [24]. Competitive Positioning - Gujing Gongjiu's channel strategy has evolved through five major phases, adapting to changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics [12][13]. - The company has successfully implemented a multi-channel strategy, enhancing its market presence and consumer engagement [17]. Management and Governance - The management team has extensive experience within the company, with a strong focus on aligning internal interests and enhancing operational efficiency [32][33]. - The current leadership has a proven track record in sales and marketing, contributing to the company's competitive edge in the market [34].