森麒麟：外销为主的优质胎企，全球扩张持续向上

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company is a high-quality tire manufacturer primarily focused on exports, with over 85% of its revenue coming from international sales. The company has experienced rapid revenue growth driven by both volume and price increases [4][5]. - The tire industry is characterized by significant growth potential, with the domestic market expected to exceed 360 billion by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 7% from 2023 to 2026. Local manufacturers are accelerating their global market share as domestic outdated capacity is eliminated [4][31]. - The company is expanding its global production capacity, with five production bases planned, which will increase its capacity to 57 million tires, a 90% increase from 2023 levels [5][21]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue of 9.741 billion, 12.646 billion, and 14.474 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 24%, 30%, and 14% [1]. - Net profit is projected to be 2.26 billion, 2.964 billion, and 3.372 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 65%, 31%, and 14% [1]. - The company achieved a net profit of 1.369 billion in 2023, a 71% increase year-over-year [1][25]. Market Position - The company has established itself as a leader in high-performance and large-size tires, with over 60% of its sales coming from tires sized 17 inches and above [5][16]. - The company has a strong brand presence with three major brands targeting different market segments, including high-end and mid-range products [16][19]. Industry Overview - The tire industry is experiencing a shift towards larger, high-performance tires driven by consumer demand for quality and brand recognition. This trend is expected to continue, enhancing the average selling price of tires [4][29]. - The domestic tire market is projected to grow significantly, with the replacement market expected to reach 300 billion by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 8% [41][42]. Cost Structure - Raw material costs account for over 70% of the company's expenses, with fluctuations in material prices significantly impacting profitability [39][36].