Luxi Chemical(000830) 长城证券·2024-06-03 10:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luxi Chemical (000830 SZ) [1] Core Views - Luxi Chemical's 1Q24 performance shows gradual recovery, with revenue of 6 752 billion yuan, up 2 61% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 568 million yuan, up 76 26% YoY [2] - The company's 2023 performance was impacted by an explosion accident, leading to a 16 47% YoY decline in revenue to 25 358 billion yuan and a 74 05% YoY decline in net profit to 819 million yuan [1] - The report is optimistic about the company's medium to long term layout, citing potential recovery in product prices and the gradual commissioning of new projects [5] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow to 29 379 billion yuan in 2024, 32 644 billion yuan in 2025, and 34 174 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 15 9%, 11 1%, and 4 7% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1 934 billion yuan in 2024, 2 289 billion yuan in 2025, and 2 615 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 136 3%, 18 3%, and 14 3% respectively [1] - ROE is expected to improve from 4 8% in 2023 to 10 3% in 2024, 11 8% in 2025, and 12 9% in 2026 [1] Business Segments - In 2023, the chemical new materials segment contributed 16 058 billion yuan in revenue, down 4 66% YoY, with a gross margin of 14 54% [2] - The basic chemical products segment generated 6 259 billion yuan in revenue, down 39 08% YoY, with a gross margin of 13 87% [2] - The fertilizer products segment contributed 2 601 billion yuan in revenue, down 15 07% YoY, with a gross margin of 7 17% [2] Operational Highlights - Sales volume of key products declined in 2023, with octanol down 5 75% YoY to 458 900 tons, nylon 6 down 5 49% YoY to 297 700 tons, and caustic soda down 18 19% YoY to 662 400 tons [2] - The company's accounts receivable decreased by 43 75% YoY, with the turnover ratio increasing from 398 03 times in 2022 to 524 50 times in 2023 [5] - Inventory decreased by 4 75% YoY, with the turnover ratio declining from 14 09 times in 2022 to 13 41 times in 2023 [5] Project Development - The company is progressing with several projects, including the caprolactam nylon 6 phase I project (85% completion), hydrogen peroxide project (60% completion), and polycarbonate project (98% completion) [5] - The company plans to achieve a production target of 9 6 million tons and a revenue target of 31 3 billion yuan in 2024 [5] Valuation - The stock is trading at a P/E of 12 2x for 2024E, 10 3x for 2025E, and 9 0x for 2026E, based on the closing price of 12 23 yuan on May 31, 2024 [1] - The P/B ratio is 1 3x for 2024E, 1 2x for 2025E, and 1 2x for 2026E [1]