Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 13.99 RMB per share [46] Core Views - The company's core business in canned products remains stable, while its coconut-based beverage business has become a new growth driver [46] - The company's revenue and net profit have shown steady growth, with 2023 revenue reaching 1.923 billion RMB, a 20.5% YoY increase, and net profit reaching 278 million RMB, a 36.9% YoY increase [46][72] - The company's coconut-based beverage business has surpassed 1 billion RMB in revenue, becoming the second growth curve, with coconut water expected to be a new growth point in the future [58] Regional Sales and Market Performance - Central China and Southwest China are the company's strong regions, contributing 35.15% and 18.51% of total sales revenue in 2023, respectively [6] - The company's sales in the Southwest and Northwest regions have shown significant growth, with CAGR of 14.68% and 13.90% from 2017 to 2023, respectively [6] - The company's sales in East China and South China have been under pressure, with East China's sales declining by 9.50 percentage points from 2017 to 2023 [6] Production Capacity and Utilization - The company has four production bases in Shandong, Hubei, and Guangdong, with a designed annual capacity of 47.19 million tons for beverages and 16.78 million tons for canned products [8] - The current capacity utilization rates for beverages and canned products are 44.76% and 44.18%, respectively, indicating room for improvement [8] - The company's new production base in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, is expected to start production in 2024, with a designed annual capacity of 13.65 million tons [8] Canned Products Market - The canned food market in China has shown stable growth, with the fruit and vegetable processing market reaching 15.376 billion RMB in 2023, an 8.91% YoY increase [14] - The company's canned product revenue reached 758 million RMB in 2023, a 16.92% YoY increase, with a CAGR of 6.10% from 2017 to 2023 [18] - The company's canned products, especially yellow peach and orange canned products, have gained popularity due to their health benefits and convenience during the pandemic [12] Coconut-Based Beverage Market - The coconut-based beverage market in China is growing rapidly, with the coconut liquid beverage market reaching 16.89 billion RMB in 2023, an 8.20% YoY increase [46] - The company's coconut-based beverage revenue reached 1.143 billion RMB in 2023, a 22.21% YoY increase, with a CAGR of 9.76% from 2017 to 2023 [18] - The company has introduced new coconut-based products, such as thick coconut milk and coconut water, to explore new growth opportunities [58] Distribution Channels - The company's distribution channels have shown steady growth, with dealer sales reaching 1.818 billion RMB in 2023, a 21.6% YoY increase [34] - The company is expanding its direct sales channels, with direct sales revenue reaching 36 million RMB in 2023, a 49.8% YoY increase [34] - The company aims to achieve 1 million retail outlets by 2024, with 700,000 effective retail outlets already in place by the end of 2023 [64] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin and net margin have shown steady improvement, with gross margin reaching 38.75% in 2023, a 5.17 percentage point YoY increase [83] - The company's operating cash flow reached 351 million RMB in 2023, a 2.20% YoY increase, with a CAGR of 5.41% from 2018 to 2023 [16] - The company's asset turnover and receivable turnover rates have improved, with total asset turnover ranking first among soft drink companies [16] Industry Trends - The canned food industry in China is experiencing a shift in consumer perception, with increasing recognition of the health benefits and convenience of canned products [12] - The industry is moving towards consolidation, with the top 5 companies accounting for 22.6% of the market share in 2023, up from 17.5% in 2014 [119] - The industry is also seeing innovation in product packaging and marketing, with companies introducing new packaging formats and engaging in co-branding to attract younger consumers [125]
欢乐家：公司深度报告：罐头筑牢本源，椰基聚势发力