福瑞股份：专注肝病领域，FibroScan GO开启新增长曲线

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on FURUI with a "Buy" rating, citing strong growth potential driven by FibroScan GO and the company's leadership in non-invasive liver disease diagnostics [8][11][20] Core Investment Thesis - FURUI is a global leader in non-invasive liver disease diagnostics, with its flagship product FibroScan being the first clinically validated device for liver stiffness measurement, widely used worldwide with over 10 million annual diagnoses [7][60] - The recent FDA approval of the first NASH drug (Resmetirom) and multiple late-stage NASH drug candidates are expected to drive rapid growth in NASH screening demand, benefiting FibroScan [7][26] - FibroScan GO's pay-per-use model has shown promising traction with 275 units installed in Europe and the US by end-2023, expected to accelerate further [7][31] - The company's patented VCTE technology and continuous algorithm improvements based on 20+ years of clinical data create strong competitive advantages [58] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1.154 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.835 billion in 2026, representing a 33.6%/34.4%/36.8% YoY growth [12][15] - Net income is forecasted to increase from RMB 102 million in 2023 to RMB 453 million in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 101%/53%/45% [8][12] - Gross margin is expected to expand from 74.7% in 2023 to 87.4% in 2026, driven by higher-margin instrument sales [12][17] Business Segments Instruments - Instrument revenue is projected to grow at 40%/42%/44% from 2024-2026, driven by FibroScan sales and GO's pay-per-use model [16][24] - FibroScan has been recommended by over 180 international guidelines and cited in 4,200+ peer-reviewed publications, solidifying its academic leadership [7][58] Pharmaceuticals - The core drug Fufang Biejia Ruangan Pian saw a 23% sales decline in 2023 to 140 million tablets, but recovery is expected with increased academic promotion [7][35] - Pharmaceutical revenue is forecasted to grow at 17%/9%/7% from 2024-2026 [16][24] Medical Services - Medical services revenue is expected to maintain steady 15% annual growth from 2024-2026 [16][24] Industry Context - NAFLD has become the most common chronic liver disease globally, with a prevalence of 25%, of which 20% may progress to NASH [7][89] - The global NASH patient population is projected to grow from 350 million in 2020 to 490 million by 2030 [89] - Multiple NASH drugs are in late-stage clinical trials, including GLP-1 drugs like semaglutide, which could further drive diagnostic demand [27]