FOSUN INTL(00656) 开源证券·2024-06-04 03:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Fosun International (00656.HK) [3] Core Views - S&P has reaffirmed Fosun International's existing BB- rating with a stable outlook, indicating a positive overall tone [4] - The company has successfully sold over 25 billion RMB in assets in 2023, reducing its debt by approximately 9 billion RMB, bringing total debt down to 89 billion RMB [4] - Fosun is expected to continue its asset divestiture strategy, with an anticipated annual debt reduction of around 10 billion RMB over the next 2-3 years [4] - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 4.09 billion RMB, 5.5 billion RMB, and 7.12 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 196.8%, 34.4%, and 29.5% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.0, 6.7, and 5.2 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - As of the end of 2023, bank loans accounted for approximately 70% of the company's total debt of 89 billion RMB, up from 46% in mid-2022 [5] - The company has maintained active participation in the domestic public debt market with small amounts of short-term issuances [5] - By the end of Q1 2024, pledged loans represented about 20% of Fosun International's total debt [5] - The company completed a significant offshore syndicated loan refinancing in early May, indicating improved refinancing conditions [5] - The report anticipates cash inflows from asset disposals to reach 15 billion RMB in 2024, based solely on signed projects with confirmed buyers [5] Business Strategy and Global Presence - Fosun has established a deep industrial presence across over 35 countries and regions on five continents, with overseas revenue accounting for 45% of total revenue in 2023 [6] - The company has seen a 14% year-on-year increase in its technology innovation segment, with revenues reaching 7.4 billion RMB [6] - In the cultural tourism sector, Fosun Tourism has continued its global expansion, reporting a 15.8% year-on-year revenue increase in Q1 2024 [6] - The report highlights a strategic cooperation framework agreement signed between Shenzhen and Shanghai Fosun High Technology to enhance collaboration in biomedicine, cultural tourism, and fashion consumption [6] Financial Projections - The projected operating revenue for 2024 is 227.4 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 14.7% [7] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 4.09 billion RMB, reflecting a significant recovery from a loss of 832 million RMB in 2022 [7] - The gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 42.8% from 2024 to 2026 [7] - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including EPS projections of 0.5, 0.7, and 0.9 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7]