古井贡酒更新报告：渠道、产品优势凸显，确定性延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Gujing Gongjiu with a target price of 350.00 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on channel strength and product structure advantages, ensuring performance certainty. The long-term perspective indicates potential for cost rate optimization and profit elasticity [3][11]. - The domestic market is experiencing structural growth, particularly in the 100-300 CNY price range, with the company's core products, Gu 5 and Gu 8, leading in sales during the off-season [11]. - The company continues to push its mid-to-high-end strategy while expanding nationally, with Gu 20 as a key product for external market growth [11]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report maintains the "Accumulate" rating and target price of 350 CNY, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 at 10.96 CNY, 13.35 CNY, and 15.88 CNY respectively [11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company demonstrates strong channel power and stable pricing in the domestic market, with significant growth in the high-end product segment [11]. - The strategy focuses on enhancing mid-to-high-end product offerings while maintaining a robust distribution network, particularly in provinces like Shandong and Henan [11]. Financial Performance - The financial outlook shows a projected revenue increase from 20,254 million CNY in 2023 to 33,132 million CNY by 2026, with net profit expected to rise from 4,589 million CNY to 8,395 million CNY in the same period [9][10]. - The report highlights a net profit margin improvement, with net profit as a percentage of revenue expected to increase from 23.3% in 2023 to 26.1% in 2026 [10].