Befar(601678) 华创证券·2024-06-04 06:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 5.69 CNY per share [7][20] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve rapid EPS growth through its C3C4 project, but due to lower-than-expected PO and caustic soda prices and slower project progress, the 2024-2026 net profit forecasts have been revised downward to 305/454/803 million CNY, representing year-on-year changes of -20.5%/+49.3%/+76.7% [7] - The company's C3C4 project, with an annual production capacity of 240,000 tons of propylene oxide and 742,000 tons of MTBE, is expected to significantly reduce costs and optimize the product structure, enhancing overall profitability and risk resistance [7] - The company is expected to benefit from the new round of supply-side reforms in the chlor-alkali industry, as it has 610,000 tons of caustic soda production capacity and has been recognized as a national energy efficiency leader in the industry for nine consecutive years [7] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 7,306 million CNY in 2023 to 9,489 million CNY in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.0%/7.1%/10.2% [10] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 384 million CNY in 2023 to 803 million CNY in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -20.5%/49.3%/76.7% [10] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.19 CNY in 2023 to 0.39 CNY in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26/17/10x [10] Industry Analysis - The State Council's "2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" aims to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 2.5% and 3.9% respectively in 2024, with non-fossil energy consumption reaching 18.9% [7] - The plan targets energy-saving and carbon reduction in key industries, including strict control over new capacity in refining, calcium carbide, and other sectors, with the chlor-alkali industry expected to be among the first to undergo optimization [7]