联德股份：深耕精密铸造，出海驱动高增长

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" [4][18]. Core Views - The company has over 20 years of experience in the casting and machining industry, demonstrating stable operational performance and confidence from major shareholders [16][33]. - The company is expected to benefit from the release of new production capacity and the growth of its hydraulic components business, which is seen as a potential growth option [5][17]. - The North American casting market remains robust, with projected steady growth in the coming years, providing a favorable environment for the company's operations [71][76]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the research, design, production, and sales of high-precision mechanical components and precision cavity molds, offering a one-stop service from casting to machining [24][42]. - The major products include components for compressors, construction machinery, injection molding machines, and food machinery [24][40]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue from 2020 to Q1 2024 was 670 million, 799 million, 1.121 billion, 1.211 billion, and 290 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.82%, 19.21%, 40.29%, 8.09%, and 3.43% respectively [38][39]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 167 million, 161 million, 248 million, 251 million, and 52 million yuan, with growth rates of -0.93%, -4.01%, 54.27%, 1.45%, and -8.49% respectively [38][39]. Market Outlook - The global compressor market is projected to grow, with the air compressor market size reaching 55 billion USD in 2022 and expected to grow by 4.75% in 2023 [5][63]. - The engineering machinery market in China is expected to stabilize and grow, with significant orders from major clients like Caterpillar, which had a backlog of 27.9 billion USD as of Q1 2024 [5][17]. Production Capacity and Projects - The Mingde project, the largest production project in the company's history, is expected to start production in the first half of this year, adding significant new capacity [5][17]. - The successful completion of the Liyuan Jinhai project is anticipated to lead to a turnaround in profitability by 2024 [5][17]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.482 billion, 1.807 billion, and 2.168 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.35%, 21.89%, and 20.03% [17][18]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 295 million, 349 million, and 410 million yuan, with growth rates of 17.43%, 18.31%, and 17.36% respectively [17][18].