GUANGHUI ENERGY(SH:600256) Guoxin Securities·2024-06-04 13:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][4][5] Core Views - The company is the only private enterprise in China with coal, natural gas, and oil resources, with significant capacity located in Xinjiang, Nantong, and Central Asia. The coal production capacity is primarily concentrated in Xinjiang, with the current approved capacity at 18 million tons per year. The approval for the Marang coal mine will increase the capacity from 5 million tons per year to 10 million tons per year, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's revenue and profit [3][4][5] - The prices of the main products, coal and natural gas, have recently rebounded from a low point, which is anticipated to improve the company's profitability [4][6] - The company plans to distribute dividends before July 10, 2024, with a commitment to distribute at least 90% of the average annual profit available for distribution to ordinary shareholders over the past three years, ensuring a minimum cash dividend of 0.70 yuan per share (including tax). This results in a high dividend yield of 8.92%, highlighting the company's long-term investment value [4][8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has rich resources in coal, natural gas, and oil in Xinjiang and Central Asia. The release of capacity from the Marang coal mine is expected to drive profit growth, with further capacity releases in eastern mining areas and the increase of production at the Baishihu coal mine expected to be completed by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 5.5 billion, 6.9 billion, and 8 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 9.3, 7.4, and 6.3 times for these years, indicating strong long-term profit growth drivers and a high dividend payout ratio [4][5][12] Market Conditions - Domestic thermal coal prices have rebounded due to increased demand from downstream users and traders, with prices rising from 801 yuan per ton in April 2024 to 874 yuan per ton by June 3, 2024, an increase of 9.11%. Similarly, LNG market prices have increased from 3935 yuan per ton to 4300.7 yuan per ton, a rise of 9.29% [6][8]