山西汾酒：公司事件点评报告：腰部产品升级发力，渠道改革有序推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on upgrading its mid-tier products and is making steady progress in channel reform, which is expected to drive revenue growth [4][5] - The introduction of the upgraded Qinghua 20 product with a "five-in-one" system is anticipated to enhance channel management and consumer traceability, thereby improving sales efficiency [5] - Long-term earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 10.60, 13.01, and 15.94 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 19, and 15 times [6] Summary by Sections Product Upgrades - The company announced price increases for several mid-tier products effective June 20, including a 60 yuan increase for the 42-degree Panama 20-year product and a 30 yuan increase for the 42/45-degree 10-year Fenjiu [4] - The upgrade of the Lao Bai Fen 10 product includes new packaging design and storytelling elements, which are expected to boost sales in the banquet market [4] Channel Management - The upgraded Qinghua 20 product features a new design and the "five-in-one" system, which includes an RFID chip for better channel management and consumer traceability [5] - The nationwide promotion of the new product is expected to enhance channel efficiency and improve price transmission after full market rollout [5] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 31.93 billion yuan in 2023 to 38.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 21.3% [8] - Net profit is expected to increase from 10.44 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.93 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 23.9% [8] - The report highlights a stable gross margin improvement, with gross margins projected to rise from 75.3% in 2023 to 78.0% in 2026 [10]