JIANGSU SHENTONG VALVE CO.(SZ:002438) Guoxin Securities·2024-06-05 13:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangsu Shentong is "Outperform the Market" [3][28]. Core Views - In 2023, Jiangsu Shentong achieved a revenue of 2.133 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, and a net profit of 269 million yuan, up 18.16% year-on-year. The gross margin and net margin were 31.69% and 12.60%, respectively, indicating an improvement in profitability driven by the higher margin nuclear power and energy-saving businesses [5][27]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in the nuclear power sector, with a projected increase in nuclear energy revenue to 694 million yuan in 2023, a 10.49% increase year-on-year. The company holds a market share of over 90% in nuclear-grade valves, positioning it well for future growth [5][27]. - The energy-saving services segment saw significant growth, with revenue increasing by 64.01% to 261 million yuan in 2023, attributed to the operational commencement of projects with Jinxi Co. and Handan Steel [5][27]. Financial Forecasts and Key Metrics - Revenue projections for Jiangsu Shentong are as follows: 2.703 billion yuan in 2024, 3.076 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.477 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 26.7%, 13.8%, and 13.0%, respectively [2][5]. - Net profit forecasts are 341 million yuan for 2024, 400 million yuan for 2025, and 465 million yuan for 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 26.7%, 17.4%, and 16.2% [2][5]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.67 yuan in 2024, 0.79 yuan in 2025, and 0.92 yuan in 2026 [2][5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 24.0 in 2023 to 19.0 in 2024, and further to 16.2 in 2025, indicating a favorable valuation trend [2][5].