KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Xiangcai Securities·2024-06-06 11:31Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return of 5% to 15% above the market benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [12]. Core Views - The company emphasizes quality and sustainable development, with a focus on maintaining its leading position in the industry. The new chairman, Zhang Deqin, highlighted the importance of quality as the core competitive advantage and outlined five key goals for 2024, including solidifying core business, ensuring sustainable growth, and enhancing brand culture [11][10]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 15% year-on-year for 2024, with a similar increase in operating costs. The projected net profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 15.1% [11][23]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 174,500 million, 199,053 million, and 225,035 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15.9%, 14.1%, and 13.1% [5][23]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 86,043 million, 98,765 million, and 111,855 million, with growth rates of 15.1%, 14.8%, and 13.3% respectively [5][23]. - The company maintains a gross margin of 92.1% across the forecast period, indicating strong profitability [5][23]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 68.49, 78.62, and 89.04 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][23]. Recent Company Performance - Over the past 12 months, the company's relative performance compared to the CSI 300 index has shown a decline of 4.93% over one month, 3.88% over three months, but an increase of 7.92% over twelve months [10]. - The company has demonstrated resilience in its performance, maintaining a strong market position despite challenges [23].