中国电力：改善消纳的新政策仍有利新增风、光项目推进，上调目标价

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Power (2380 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 4.75 from HKD 3.90, indicating a potential upside of 27.0% from the current price of HKD 3.74 [1][2][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that new policies for renewable energy consumption are favorable for the advancement of new wind and solar projects, leading to an upward revision of the target price [1]. - Hydropower is recovering as expected, with a significant year-on-year increase in generation, and the forecast for hydropower utilization hours for 2024 has been adjusted from 2,750 to 2,900 hours [1][2]. - The report notes that while the utilization hours for wind and solar power are expected to remain stable, the company has seen substantial increases in generation due to acquisitions and new projects [2]. - The adjustment in the renewable energy consumption policy is expected to support the growth in new installations, ensuring reasonable utilization rates for new projects [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 43,689 million in 2022 to RMB 61,756 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.8% [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 2,648 million in 2022 to RMB 8,791 million in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from RMB 0.20 in 2022 to RMB 0.68 in 2026, indicating a robust increase in profitability [3][12]. - The report anticipates a dividend payout ratio of 50%, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 7.7% in 2025 [2][3]. Generation Capacity Forecast - The total generation capacity is expected to increase from 52,019 million kWh in 2024E to 67,019 million kWh by 2026E, with significant contributions from hydropower, wind, and solar energy [5][6]. - The report projects that the share of renewable energy in the company's generation mix will rise from 78.7% in 2024E to 83.5% by 2026E, reflecting a strategic shift towards cleaner energy sources [5][6].