TZE(SZ:002129) Haitong Securities·2024-06-07 05:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the silicon wafer industry, leveraging its technological advantages for active expansion. It was founded in 1958 and entered the photovoltaic industry in 1981, becoming one of the earliest producers of monocrystalline silicon for solar power in China. As of the end of 2023, the company's crystal production capacity reached 183GW, further enhancing its competitive position in the photovoltaic materials sector [6]. - The company maintains a leading market share in N-type silicon wafers, with a total shipment of photovoltaic materials reaching approximately 114GW in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 68%. The overall market share for silicon wafers is 23.4%, with a 60% share in the large-size export market and a 65% share in the overseas silicon wafer export market. The N-type market share stands at 36.4%, retaining the top position in exports [6]. - The company is expected to continue strengthening its N-type Total Solution capabilities and increase the proportion and market share of large-size and N-type products in 2024 [6]. - The company is pursuing a global strategic cooperation and actively exploring advanced technologies in downstream sectors. It is cautiously advancing its globalization strategy, assessing and exploring industrial layout projects in key countries or regions such as the United States, Europe, and the Middle East [6]. - The company anticipates a significant reduction in production costs for monocrystalline silicon in Q2 2024, with a potential decrease of nearly 20% compared to Q1 or the end of 2023 [6]. Financial Summary - The company's projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1.714 billion, 2.663 billion, and 3.307 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -49.8%, 55.3%, and 24.2% respectively [7]. - The expected revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 53.756 billion, 62.070 billion, and 69.746 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -9.1%, 15.5%, and 12.4% respectively [8][12]. - The gross profit margins for the company are expected to be 16.3%, 16.1%, and 16.2% for 2024-2026 [12]. - The company’s silicon wafer business is projected to generate revenues of 39.191 billion, 44.234 billion, and 46.815 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with gross margins of 16.54% for both 2024 and 2025, and 17.20% for 2026 [9][10]. Business Segment Breakdown - The revenue from the photovoltaic silicon wafer segment is expected to be 39.145 billion yuan in 2024, with a shipment volume of 148GW and a unit cost of 0.22 yuan/W [10]. - The photovoltaic module segment is projected to generate revenues of 7.761 billion, 10.063 billion, and 14.093 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with gross margins of 6.20%, 6.54%, and 6.77% respectively [9][10]. - Other silicon materials are expected to generate revenues of 3.952 billion, 4.348 billion, and 4.782 billion yuan for 2024-2026, maintaining a gross margin of 28% [9][10]. - The electricity business is projected to generate revenues of 509 million, 560 million, and 616 million yuan for 2024-2026, with a gross margin of 45% [9][10]. - Other businesses are expected to generate revenues of 2.388 billion, 2.866 billion, and 3.439 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with a gross margin of 20% [9][10].