PDH(SH:600048) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-06-07 06:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for Poly Developments is maintained at "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise with excellent management capabilities, benefiting from relaxed real estate policies and an optimized industry landscape [2] - The company’s sales data shows a narrowing decline, maintaining its top position in the industry despite a decrease in sales volume and amount [2] - The company has successfully issued bonds in the public market, maintaining a low cost of capital and optimizing its debt structure [2] Sales Performance - In May 2024, the company achieved a contracted area of 1.943 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 26.0%, and a contracted amount of 35.31 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year, but up 6.9% month-on-month [2] - For the first five months of 2024, the contracted area was 7.478 million square meters, down 35.0% year-on-year, with a contracted amount of 131.32 billion yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year [2] Land Acquisition - In May 2024, the company acquired two plots of land in Shanghai and Zhongshan, with a total construction area of 39,000 square meters and a land payment of 1.65 billion yuan [2] - The land acquisition amount for the first five months of 2024 was 9.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 72.1% [2] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 383.164 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 13.195 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [3] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 16.2% in 2024, with a net margin of 3.4% [3] Valuation Metrics - The projected EPS for 2024 is 1.10 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.3, 8.6, and 8.1 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 1.801565 trillion yuan by 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 75.88% [3]