PDH(SH:600048) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-06-07 07:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for Poly Developments is maintained at "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise with excellent management capabilities, benefiting from favorable real estate policies and an optimized industry landscape [2] - The company’s sales data shows a narrowing decline, maintaining its leading position in the market despite a decrease in sales scale [3] - The company has successfully issued bonds, optimizing its debt structure and maintaining low financing costs [5] Sales Performance - In May 2024, the company achieved a contracted area of 1.943 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 26.0%, and a contracted amount of 35.31 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year, but up 6.9% month-on-month [3] - From January to May 2024, the total contracted area was 7.478 million square meters, down 35.0% year-on-year, with a total contracted amount of 131.32 billion yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year [3] Land Acquisition - In May 2024, the company acquired two plots of land with a total construction area of 39,000 square meters for a total land cost of 1.65 billion yuan, with an equity ratio of 91.0% [4] - From January to May 2024, the company acquired eight plots of land with a total construction area of 719,000 square meters, with a total land cost of 9.03 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 55.0% and 72.1% respectively [4] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 383.164 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, and net profit is expected to be 13.195 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.3% [6] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is 75.88%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points compared to the end of 2023 [5] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.10 yuan, 1.19 yuan, and 1.27 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.3, 8.6, and 8.1 [2][6]