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和黄医药：深度研究：差异化布局，全球合作创新
00013HUTCHMED(00013) 东方财富证券·2024-06-11 01:31

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Hutchison China MediTech (HCM) to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 55.78 [3][6] Core Views - HCM is an early-stage innovative pharmaceutical company with a differentiated portfolio and global collaborations, including partnerships with Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, and Takeda [2] - The company has three commercialized products (Fruquintinib, Surufatinib, and Savolitinib) and a fourth candidate drug, Tazemetostat, approved in Hainan and Macau [2] - Fruquintinib, a 1billionpotentialblockbuster,hasbeenapprovedinChinaandtheUS,withexpectedapprovalsinEuropeandJapanby2024[2]−Surufatinibhasstronggrowthpotentialduetoitsdualanti−angiogenicandimmunomodulatoryactivities,withcollaborationsforcombinationtherapies[2]−Savolitinib,afirst−in−classMETinhibitor,isexpectedtoexpandintofirst−lineuseandaddressunmetneedsinMET−positiveNSCLCpatients[2]FinancialProjections−Revenueisprojectedtogrowfrom1 billion potential blockbuster, has been approved in China and the US, with expected approvals in Europe and Japan by 2024 [2] - Surufatinib has strong growth potential due to its dual anti-angiogenic and immunomodulatory activities, with collaborations for combination therapies [2] - Savolitinib, a first-in-class MET inhibitor, is expected to expand into first-line use and address unmet needs in MET-positive NSCLC patients [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 890 million in 2024 to 1.575billionin2026,withaCAGRof251.575 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 25% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 134 million in 2024 to 351millionin2026,withaCAGRof48351 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 48% [6] - EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.15 in 2024 to 0.40in2026,withaP/Eratiodecliningfrom25xto10x[6]ProductPipelineandMarketPotential−Fruquintinibmaintainsaleadingpositioninthethird−linecolorectalcancermarketandisexpectedtoexpandintosecond−linegastriccancer,endometrialcancer,andrenalcellcarcinoma[2][26]−Surufatinibisbeingdevelopedforover10tumortypes,includingneuroendocrinetumorsandpancreaticductaladenocarcinoma,withaglobalNETmarketprojectedtogrowto0.40 in 2026, with a P/E ratio declining from 25x to 10x [6] Product Pipeline and Market Potential - Fruquintinib maintains a leading position in the third-line colorectal cancer market and is expected to expand into second-line gastric cancer, endometrial cancer, and renal cell carcinoma [2][26] - Surufatinib is being developed for over 10 tumor types, including neuroendocrine tumors and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, with a global NET market projected to grow to 21.5 billion by 2030 [48] - Savolitinib is being studied for MET-driven cancers, including NSCLC, gastric cancer, and renal cell carcinoma, with potential to address unmet needs in MET-positive patients [2][48] Collaborations and Commercialization - HCM has global collaborations with Eli Lilly for Fruquintinib in China and Takeda for international markets, with potential milestone payments and royalties [26][38] - The company successfully renewed the national medical insurance listing for Fruquintinib and Surufatinib without further price reductions, driving strong sales growth in 2023 [2][24] - Fruquintinib (FRUZAQLA) was launched in the US in November 2023, with sales reaching $15.1 million by year-end [40]