中国黄金国际：公司研究报告：高分红、低估值的铜金矿企

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) [4] Core Views - The company is a state-owned gold and copper resource platform under China Gold Group, a central SOE directly supervised by SASAC [1] - Key assets include Chang Shan Hao Gold Mine (96 5% stake) and Jiama Copper-Gold Polymetallic Mine (100% stake) [1] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout policy, with dividend payout ratios of 42%/37%/66% in 2020-2022 and dividend yields of 8 3%/9 3%/12 7% respectively [4] - Growth strategy focuses on strategic acquisitions, leveraging China Gold Group's international project pipeline and partnerships with other mining companies [4] - The company is expected to benefit from resource revaluation amid rising gold and copper prices, with Jiama mine's resumption driving profitability recovery [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from $742 52 million in 2024E to$1,319 32 million in 2026E, with YoY growth rates of 61 62%/61 77%/9 84% [5] - Net profit is forecasted to recover from -$25 50 million in 2023 to$399 24 million in 2026E [5] - EPS is expected to increase from -$0 06 in 2023 to$1 01 in 2026E [5] - ROE is projected to improve from -1 5% in 2023 to 18 8% in 2026E [5] - The company is valued at 1 9-2 0x 2024E PB, implying a target price range of HK$65 09-68 51 [4] Operational Assumptions - Gold price assumptions:$2,300/$2,415/$2,536 per ounce for 2024-2026 [6] - Copper price assumptions: $9,400/$9,870/$10,364 per ton for 2024-2026 [6] - Chang Shan Hao Gold Mine: Gold sales volume projected at 3 5/3 4/3 4 tons for 2024-2026, with revenue growth of 2%/3%/5% and gross margins of 37%/39%/41% [6] - Jiama Copper-Gold Polymetallic Mine: Copper sales volume projected at 44k/80k/85k tons and gold sales at 1 4/2 6/2 8 tons for 2024-2026, with revenue growth of 134%/93%/11% and gross margins of 32%/44%/49% [6] Peer Comparison - Compared to peers like Zijin Mining (2899 HK), CMOC (3993 HK), and Zhaojin Mining (1818 HK), China Gold International has lower valuation multiples [8] - The company's 2024E PE of 178 47x is higher than peers' average of 35 5x, while its 2024E PB of 11 94x is significantly higher than peers' average of 2 5x [8]