山西汾酒：跟踪点评：腰部产品有望发力，全要素竞争力强化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [3] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to strengthen its mid-tier product offerings, particularly with the recent upgrades and price increases of its flagship products, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth [2][3] - The company is positioned to outperform its peers in terms of growth speed and quality, with a focus on enhancing its overall competitive capabilities [2] Summary by Sections Product Strategy - The recent dealer conference revealed the launch of upgraded products, including Qinghua 20 and upgraded Lao Bai Fenjiu, with a price increase of 5 yuan per bottle for the Lao Bai Fenjiu series [2] - The strategic shift since 2022 focuses on enhancing the mid-tier segment while maintaining strong performance in the premium segment [2] Sales Performance - The company expects revenue growth for the Lao Bai Fenjiu series to exceed the overall company growth rate, particularly in the second quarter following the price adjustments [2] - Qinghua 20 continues to show strong sales momentum, with expectations for it to maintain a growth rate above the company average [2] Financial Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 130.8 billion, 155.2 billion, and 182.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 10.7, 12.7, and 15.0 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 22, 19, and 16 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Market Position - The company has a solid foundation in its home market and is expanding its presence in surrounding provinces, with strong growth potential in southern markets like Jiangsu and Anhui [2] - The overall market share is expected to increase due to the company's brand and product advantages, alongside improved management and execution capabilities [2]