兴业银行：跟踪点评：业绩筑底改善，资产负债表重构成效渐显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 22.24 CNY, compared to the current price of 17.53 CNY [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a successful restructuring of its balance sheet, with asset growth and effective cost reduction on the liability side. The 2023 performance is expected to be a low point, with improvements in asset quality and profitability anticipated in the future [5][6]. - The bank's revenue for 2023 and Q1 2024 showed a decline of 5.2% and an increase of 4.22% respectively, with net interest income growing by 5.1% year-on-year in Q1 2024 [1][2]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 1.07%, with a provision coverage ratio of 245.5%, indicating a solid asset quality [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 2023 total revenue was 210,831 million CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 4.99%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 77,116 million CNY, down 15.61% year-on-year [6][9]. - For 2024E, total revenue is projected to be 203,976 million CNY, with a slight decline of 3.25%, while net profit is expected to increase marginally to 77,331 million CNY [6][9]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio is projected to slightly improve to 1.06% in 2024E, while the provision coverage ratio is expected to decrease to 242.35% [8][9]. - The bank has actively managed risk by increasing provisions and addressing potential problem loans, leading to a decrease in new non-performing loans in key sectors [2][5]. Growth Projections - The bank's loan portfolio is expected to grow significantly, with total loans projected to reach 6,007,029 million CNY in 2024E, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 9.5% [8][9]. - The report forecasts net profit growth rates of 0.3%, 2.9%, and 5.6% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, indicating a gradual recovery [5][6]. Dividend Policy - The bank has maintained a high dividend payout, with a dividend rate exceeding 6.6% as of June 10, 2024, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [5][6].