hbky(600985) 海通证券·2024-06-11 10:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the coal business remains stable, while the chemical business is dragging down overall performance. The company has achieved significant cost reductions, which have improved gross margins despite a decline in both sales volume and price [4][6]. - The company is expected to see growth in profits from ongoing projects, particularly in coal and chemical sectors, with a focus on upgrading and diversifying its operations [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 17.32 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.59 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.8% and 24.7% respectively due to falling coal sales volume and prices [4][5]. - The coal sales volume decreased by 7.7% to 5.24 million tons, while external sales dropped by 21.1% to 4.03 million tons. The average selling price of coal was 1,176 yuan per ton, down 15.2% year-on-year [4][5]. Business Segments - The report indicates that the coking business saw improved profitability in Q1 2024, with production and sales of 0.88 million tons, while the ethanol project is expected to contribute profits in the future [4][6]. - The company has several ongoing projects, including a 2×660MW coal-fired power generation project in Anhui with an expected annual profit of 196 million yuan upon completion [4][6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.32 billion yuan, 7.73 billion yuan, and 8.35 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of 2.35, 2.87, and 3.10 yuan [4][8]. - Based on comparable company valuations, a PE ratio of 9 to 10 times is applied for 2024, leading to a reasonable value range of 21.11 to 23.45 yuan per share [4][8].