Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Tuhu-W (09690.HK), marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - Tuhu has established itself as the leading player in the independent automotive aftermarket (IAM) sector in China, achieving its first annual profit in 2023, validating its business model [2][10]. - The automotive service market in China is projected to grow significantly, reaching approximately 1.93 trillion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2023 to 2027 [2][11]. - The report highlights the advantages of Tuhu's O2O (Online to Offline) model, which is expected to capture a larger market share as consumer demand for IAM services increases [2][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Service Demand Reaches a Turning Point - The automotive service market in China is expected to grow from 1.24 trillion yuan in 2022 to 1.93 trillion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 9% [11][12]. - The average vehicle age has reached a maintenance turning point, with annual service spending per vehicle projected to increase to 5,168 yuan by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 2.7% [21][24]. 2. Supply Changes: Internet Models Drive Value Redistribution - The market is highly fragmented, with the top five players holding less than 6% market share, indicating significant growth potential for IAM services [29][32]. - The report notes that as more vehicles reach the end of their warranty periods, consumer demand for IAM services is expected to rise, with IAM GMV projected to grow to 1.1 trillion yuan by 2027 [29][36]. 3. Tuhu: A Model of Effective Expansion - Tuhu has successfully expanded its store network, with a focus on sustainable profitability and high customer retention rates [2][10]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 25% in 2023, with significant room for improvement compared to U.S. IAM leaders, whose average gross margin is 46% [2][10]. - Tuhu's user repurchase rate and revenue contribution from existing customers are steadily increasing, indicating strong customer loyalty [2][10]. 4. Management Control and New Phase Post-IPO - The management team is effectively steering the company towards its growth objectives, leveraging its IPO to support further expansion [2][10]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts adjusted net profits for Tuhu of 736 million yuan in 2024, 1.23 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.78 billion yuan in 2026, with a target price of 33 HKD based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [2][10].
途虎-W：车后IAM龙头的模式优势、扩张边界和盈利方向