YILI(600887) First Shanghai Securities·2024-06-12 05:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.91 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 17.9% from the current price of 27.06 CNY [2][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for Q1 2024 were 32.46 billion CNY and 5.95 billion CNY, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.6% in revenue but a significant increase of 64.7% in net profit, driven by a one-time gain from asset disposal [1][2]. - The liquid milk business is under short-term pressure, while the milk powder segment is expected to accelerate growth due to improved market conditions and demographic factors [2]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 73.3% for the fiscal year 2023, with a consistent track record of over 70% for five consecutive years, alongside a share buyback plan to enhance shareholder returns [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 35.8%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 18.2%, up by 7.4 percentage points [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 13.55 billion CNY, 12.68 billion CNY, and 14.04 billion CNY, respectively [2][5]. Business Segments - The liquid milk segment is facing challenges due to fluctuating demand and high base effects from the previous year, but recovery is anticipated in the second half of the year [2]. - The milk powder business is projected to grow, supported by demographic trends and inventory clearance in the industry [2]. - The cheese segment is under pressure, while the ice cream business is expected to maintain stable growth due to market expansion efforts [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company has declared a cash dividend of 7.64 billion CNY for the fiscal year 2023, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [2]. - A share buyback plan of 1 to 2 billion CNY is also in place to further enhance shareholder value [2].