POP MART(09992) 国海证券·2024-06-12 14:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company continues to validate its product category expansion logic and accelerates its overseas market penetration [2] - New product lines, including the Labubu Forest Secret Base series building blocks, are expected to enhance domestic market growth and same-store sales [2] - The company is leveraging various promotional strategies, including collaborations with celebrities and KOLs, to enhance its IP and cultural outreach [2] - The company has initiated a global expansion strategy, transitioning from a B2B model to a direct-to-consumer (DTC) approach, with significant growth in overseas revenue [3] - The company’s overseas revenue for 2023 reached 1.066 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 134.9% [3] - The company anticipates a multiplier effect on growth from its IP potential and channel expansion, projecting overseas revenue growth of no less than 100% in 2024 [3] - The Douyin channel has shown rapid growth, with significant increases in GMV [4] Summary by Sections Product Expansion - The company has launched new products, including the Labubu series and POPCARD collectible cards, with strong initial sales performance [2] - The company plans to introduce three major new product lines in 2024, which are expected to increase the proportion of non-blind box products [2] Market Performance - The company’s stock price as of June 11, 2024, is 38.05 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 51.1 billion HKD [3] - The company’s overseas revenue accounted for 16.9% of total revenue in 2023, with a significant increase in contribution expected in 2024 [3] Financial Projections - The report projects the company’s revenue to reach 86.37 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 16.34 billion yuan [6] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 17.37 billion yuan for 2024, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 26.8 for 2024 [6][7]