Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (600809) 长城证券·2024-06-13 02:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [10]. Core Views - The company is focusing on product upgrades to strengthen its mid-tier offerings and is leveraging digitalization to drive channel transformation [1]. - The sales conference highlighted a price increase of 5 yuan per box for the entire series of Lao Bai Fen and the comprehensive upgrade of Qinghua 20, which includes a new five-in-one system [1][2]. - The company aims to enhance its market presence outside of Shanxi, with a reported revenue of 19.659 billion yuan from outside the province in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.84% [2]. - The Qinghua 20 upgrade features a new design and improved channel and pricing control through the integration of RFID technology [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 31.928 billion yuan in 2023 to 55.240 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.6% [1]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 10.438 billion yuan in 2023 to 19.469 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of about 21.5% [1]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 37.0% in 2023 to 31.5% in 2026 [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to rise from 8.56 yuan in 2023 to 15.96 yuan in 2026 [1].