Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber (SH:688295) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-06-13 08:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company's capacity position continues to strengthen, with advanced layouts in high-end demand sectors such as civil aviation. The technical capability to customize product processes based on customer performance requirements may further contribute to cost reduction [2][3]. - Given the pressure on supply and demand in the civil sector, prices are expected to stabilize at low levels. The EPS estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 0.36 (-0.52), 0.48 (-0.60), and 0.69 (first time) yuan, respectively. The target price has been lowered to 32.60 yuan (-23.66) [3][4]. - Sales are projected to grow alongside capacity increases, with an estimated sales volume of around 24,000 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 33%. The main contributions are expected from breakthroughs in wind power, increased exports following overseas personnel and warehouse arrangements, and the ongoing development of hydrogen energy pressure vessels [3][4]. - The customized model has further cost reduction potential, with the company maintaining a leading position in profitability within the industry. The estimated cost per ton is expected to continue optimizing throughout 2024, supported by energy recovery modifications at the Xining base [3][4]. - The company is advancing its new base in Lianyungang, with trial production expected by the end of 2024 or early 2025. Despite a decline in global carbon fiber demand in 2023, the company has shown strong sales growth, indicating a significant increase in market share across key sectors [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 1,995 million yuan, with projections of 2,259 million yuan for 2023, 2,440 million yuan for 2024, 3,463 million yuan for 2025, and 4,529 million yuan for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 70.0%, 13.3%, 8.0%, 41.9%, and 30.8% respectively [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 605 million yuan, with projections of 318 million yuan for 2023, 320 million yuan for 2024, 436 million yuan for 2025, and 624 million yuan for 2026, showing a significant decline in 2023 but recovery in subsequent years [4][9]. - The estimated EPS for 2024 is 0.36 yuan, with projections of 0.48 yuan for 2025 and 0.69 yuan for 2026 [4][9].