NIO(09866) 国盛证券·2024-06-16 07:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a strong delivery volume with Q1 2024 achieving 30,053 units delivered, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, and revenue of 9.909 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year. The Q1 gross margin was 4.9%, with an automotive gross margin of 9.2%, reflecting a decline due to increased discounts during product transitions [1]. - The company has provided strong guidance for Q2 2024, expecting sales between 54,000 to 56,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 130% to 138%, and revenue guidance of 16.587 to 17.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89% to 95% [1]. - The company has adjusted its Battery as a Service (BaaS) plan, which has led to an 80% penetration rate, significantly boosting sales. Orders exceeded expectations, with May deliveries reaching 20,544 units, nearly at the monthly production capacity limit [1]. - The company is set to launch the L60 model under the new brand, with plans for a mid-large SUV next year, and aims for a long-term gross margin of over 15% for the Lada brand [1]. - The company has established partnerships for battery swapping with several brands and aims to have over 1,000 fourth-generation stations by the end of the year [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the company is projected to sell approximately 210,000, 330,000, and 440,000 vehicles, with total revenues reaching 63.4 billion, 88 billion, and 114.4 billion yuan respectively. The non-GAAP net profit margins are expected to be around -30%, -18%, and -13% [1][4]. - The report indicates a target market capitalization of approximately 13.1 billion USD (102.4 billion HKD), corresponding to about 1.5 times the estimated 2024 price-to-sales ratio [1].